Thursday, August 25, 2011

Working Wednesday: Leading Indicators of National Employment(LINE)

The Society of Human Resource Management(SHRM), produces a semiannual review of national employment. They look at 4 key areas: 1. employers' hiring expectations; 2. new hire compensation; 3. difficulty in recruiting top talent; and 4. job vacancies. They survey manufacturing and service sector companies for this report because they employ more than 90% of the nation's private sector workers.

The last one produced is reported on Q3 and Q4, 2010. They have not announced their report for Q1and 2, 2011 yet. The report from 2010 has some great information and graphs. One of the graphs compares this recession from the last severe one which began in 1981. The narrative makes a note that in 1984, employment was better--3.5% above pre-recession level(employment is last to recover from a recession). The most recent recession began in December, 2007. Looking at three years later, employment is 5.2% below pre-recession level.

LINE research indicates there are small silver linings. Businesses are hiring a selective few who are highly qualified and match exactly what they want. In the entire United States, the private sector added 113,000 jobs in December, 2010. According to LINE, job postings will increase, but so will the number of people seeking employment. The average number of jobs will have to double each month in order for employment to catch up with the end of the Great Recession(Depression) which officially ended June, 2009.

For the report, see: www.shrm.org/line.

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